Economic Effects of Ebola
Sourced from World Bank Report on Ebola. Dated September 2014
The Ebola Crisis
The Ebola epidemic in West Africa has stolen the lives of nearly 3,000 people since January 2014.
In addition to lost lives, the disease is dealing a severe economic blow to families and governments.
Closed borders and abandoned farms are driving up food costs leaving many people in rural communities hungry.
Emergency spending on health services is drawing money from already cash-strapped government budgets.
The epidemic could reverse years of economic gains made by countries in this developing part of the world.
Please Note:
These estimates are subject to considerable uncertainty, arising not only from the usual and well-known problems
associated with economic forecasting and data scarcity, but even more so from the unusually high uncertainty associated
with the future epidemiological path of Ebola, and with people’s behavioral responses to it.
All of the numbers represent best-effort estimates under documented assumptions and modeling choices, but the margins of
error associated with them are inevitably large. The scenarios should be read and interpreted accordingly.
Sourced: http://www.worldbank.org/en/region/afr/publication/ebola-economic-analysis-ebola-long-term-economic-impact-could-be-devastating
Health Impact
Fatality Rate
59%
Cumulative GDP (Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea)
%
Before Ebola GDP
%
After Ebola GDP
$Mil +
In Costs
Best Case Scenario In 2015 For Ebola Containment (Low Ebola)
Low Ebola Projections
A “Low Ebola” scenario corresponds to rapid containment within the three most severely affected countries.
The medium-term impact (2015) on output in Guinea is estimated to be negligible. In Liberia, it is estimated to be 4.2pp of GDP.
In Sierra Leone, the impact would be 1.2pp of GDP.
These estimates of lost GDP in the core three countries (for 2015 alone) sum to US$97 million under Low Ebola.
Sourced:World Bank Report on Ebola
Total GDP Growth Impact
Fiscal Impact
$98,000,000
Lost due to Ebola
Worst Case Scenario In 2015 For Ebola Containment (High Ebola)
High Ebola Projections
While “High Ebola” corresponds to slower containment in the three most severely affected countries., with likely broader regional contagion.
The medium-term impact (2015) on output in Guinea is estimated to be 2.3pp of GDP. In Liberia, it is estimated to be 11.7pp of GDP.
In Sierra Leone, the impact would be 8.9pp. These estimates of lost GDP in the core three countries (for 2015 alone)
US$809 million under High Ebola.
Sourced:World Bank Report on Ebola
Total GDP Growth Impact
Fiscal Impact
$809,000,000
Lost due to Ebola
Cause and Effects of the Ebola Virus
